Winners and Losers Of Patch 7.02
Was it a buff or a nerf when Doom exchanged his Armor talent for a Scorched Earth buff that now does Radiance levels of damage? Does Dark Seer’s increase of his lvl 15 talent from +90 to +120 make it a better choice now than 14 Health Regen? With a little more than a week into patch 7.02, these changes have rippled throughout pubs, and we can take a look at how their effects have changed the overall win rates of heroes.
On one hand, the wide net of pubs can showcase the significance of underrated changes, like how 
Necrophos’ reduction in Agility gain was from 1.7 to 1.2 led to one of the largest hits in win rates at -1.7%, pushing him from 1st in win rate in patch 7.01 down to 6th in 7.02. On the other hand, it can also make sense of sweeping changes whose consequences aren’t as easy to estimate, such as the case of 
Doom.
- Level 10 Talent from +8 Intelligence to +80 Devour Bonus Gold
- Level 10 Talent from +150 Health to +250
- Level 15 Talent from +6 Armor to +15 Scorched Earth Damage/Heal
- Level 15 Talent from +15 Movement Speed to +20
- Level 20 Talent from +65 Damage to +35 Doom DPS
Doom seemingly received a large buff in the form of a free Hand of Midas upgrade at level 10 (actually, because of Devour’s low cd, the talent boosted skill now hits 270 gold/min compared to 150 gold/min before the buff and the 114 gold/min of Hand of Midas), but so far that change hasn’t translated to a win rate increase, with +250 health edging it by 0.6%. The Scorched Earth buff has 78% of players picking it over +20 movement speed, but the difference in win rate is currently 0%. So far, Doom’s win rate change from 7.01 to 7.02 is 0.01%.
What pub stats may not showcase are changes that are more significant in competitive meta. 
Queen of Pain had some promise in 7.01, but the change to Blademail no longer lifestealing from its returned damage has squashed whatever her chances were (in pubs, she’s the 5th worst hero in win rate).
Ember Spirit’s nerf allowing root to disable Activate Fire Remnant makes it a significant liability when teams can situationally counter him, but that’s unlikely to be seen in pubs, where his win rate has increased by 0.58%.
The rest of the heroes highlighted here include heroes who have had the largest shifts in win rate as well as heroes whose changes have an impact in the meta. That leaves rarely played heroes like Meepo (-2.06%) and Broodmother (-1.5%) out, despite having some of the greatest drops in win rate.
Winners
Sand King- Level 10 Talent from +200 Mana to +10% Magic Resistance
- Level 15 Talent from +12% Magic Resistance to +50 Sand Storm DPS
- Level 15 Talent from +15 Movement Speed to -30s Respawn Time
Sand King had the 2nd largest bump to win rate in the patch at 1.61%. The change from +200 Mana to 10% Magic Resistance was trivial, with +5 Armor still edging it out by 1.5%. But it’s the bonus Sand Storm DPS that’s been pivotal, with a 2.3% increase in win rate over a reduction in respawn time.
There is a case that the respawn talent can be situationally beneficial for comeback games, and because players pick it from a losing position, the decrease in win rate is reflected here. Yet, pubs are currently picking it 61.3% of the time—far from situational.
Zeus- Scepter strike interval from 2.5 to 2.25
- Scepter cooldown from 50 to 40 seconds
- Scepter duration from 50 to 40 seconds
- Level 10 Talent from +150 Health to +175
Zeus got a 1.4% bump in his win rate, enough to jump him from 10th to 5th place in the win rate charts. The strike interval buff to his new Aghanim Scepter upgrade from patch 7.00 amounts to a 10% damage increase, but its larger effect is being able to deal damage quicker before it gets taken down. The cooldown reduction also gives Nimbus a slight boost in utility to be used in more team fights.
Windranger- Powershot damage from 120/220/320/420 to 180/260/340/420
- Powershot cooldown from 9 to 12/11/10/9
- Windrun slow AoE from 300 to 325
- Windrun manacost from 100 to 75
- Level 10 Talent from +15 Damage to +25% Windrun Slow
- Level 15 Talent from +16 Intelligence to +20 Intelligence
- Level 15 Talent from +200 Health to +40 Movement Speed
- Level 20 Talent from +12% Magic Resistance to +20%
- Level 20 Talent from +12% Spell Amplification to +15%
- Level 25 Talent from -5s Powershot Cooldown to -6s
Ok, so maybe Windranger wasn’t among the largest shifts in win rates at 0.81%, but she’s long been one of the community’s favorite heroes, and she’s had a tumultuous journey from top pick to irrelevancy to now clamoring back in the meta with a new identity as some chimera of support, core, magic-dealing hero.
It might help to look back at what made her strong when she was the strongest as a midlaner: smooth attack animation, hardiness, mobility, and an ability to escalate into the mid and late game by leveraging Focus Fire’s ability to delete heroes and towers. The breadth of her changes is a shift away from those strengths and towards a magic damage build, from Focus Fire machine gun to Powershot spam.
Despite the nudge towards a spellcaster build with the lvl 25 talent buff to Powershot, pub players are still opting towards +100 Attack Range, which currently has a 1.4% win rate advantage. The buffs to Spell Amplification is good for Powershot but also for Maelstrom, a staple of her old build, and while the spellcaster path will always be there, her strengths still lie in her roots.
Losers
Luna- Base attack damage reduced by 6
- Lunar Blessing Night Vision bonus from 1000 to 250/500/750/1000
- Level 10 Talent from +4 Armor to +15 Movement Speed
rest in peace luna
— Clinton Loomis (@FearDotA) February 9, 2017
For awhile Luna has been one of the top carries, and she was one of the most contested during the DAC qualifiers. With 500 base hp and 18 base Agility, Luna is one of the squishiest heroes at level 1 (Medusa and Clinkz are comparable, but they’re also ranged heroes). So her early game strength in the lane is dependent on taking advantage of Lunar Blessing, with her supports, to push her offlane opponent out. The base attack nerf is a significant hit at a point where Luna is at her weakest--add to this the nerf in Lunar Blessing's Night Vision, when the standard is a 4-4-1 build, along with the nerfs to HOTD and Dragon Lance, it's enough to reduce her win rate by -1.19%.
Slardar- Slithereen Crush stun duration from 1.6/1.9/2.2/2.5 to 1.5/1.75/2/2.25
- Level 15 Talent from +200 Health to +225
A little can lead to a lot, and so a small reduction in Slardar’s stun duration can equal a -1.40% change in win rate across all pubs. Valve has been targeting talents as a means to balance heroes, allowing them to tweak strengths or weaknesses at different phases of a game. The change to Slithereen Crush is about a 5-8% reduction across the board. It won’t be enough to derail his status in the meta, where he was by far the most contested hero during the DAC qualifiers.
Shadow Demon- Disruption illusion damage taken from 200% to 300%
- Level 25 Talent from -1s Shadow Poison Cooldown to -6s Soul Catcher Cooldown
Shadow Demon was the most contested support during the DAC qualifiers, and rightly so. Illusions will always be strong as long as they continue to be risk-free damage on towers. At the previous 200% damage taken, Disruption illusions were the hardest ones to kill, and now at 300% damage taken, they still are, but the nerfs puts them more in line with the toughness of Naga Siren’s Mirror Image or Manta Style illusions.
Monkey King- Base armor reduced by 3
- Jingu Mastery bonus damage from 80/120/160/200 to 75/100/125/150
- Jingu Mastery lifesteal from 20/30/40/50% to 15/30/45/60%
- Wukong's Command no longer continues while reincarnating
- Level 15 Talent from +20 Movement Speed to +75 Jingu Mastery Damage
- Level 20 Talent from +15 Strength to 20% Magic Resistance
- Level 25 Talent from +25% Magic Resistance to +25 Strength
New heroes tend to be the most hated, regardless of whether they’re overpowered or not, because they’re the most popular. They win more games than every other hero, because they are in more games. They also lose more games. And maybe because he’s the new hero on the block, we tend to attribute wins or losses because of him. Despite Monkey King’s win rate being around 50%, the games he was in always felt more lopsided—win or loss. With the nerfs in 7.02, Monkey King suffered the largest hit in win rate at -3.98%, and his pick rate dropped from 31.72% (3rd) to 17.52% (12th).
What’s positive about the changes is that they don’t change how the hero feels. He still retains his mobility and spell damage, but now he’s squishy to a point where he’s relatively weak in most matchups. Armor is important. Necrophos and Lycan were also hit with armor nerfs, but in the form of a reduction in Agility gain, which spreads the disadvantage over time. Monkey King’s nerf brings his armor to 0 at level 1. Along with the nerf to Jingu Mastery, it’s enough to hamstring his early game, whether it’s competing for last hits in the mid lane or off lane.
FIRST for the first time
oh this is new
first...3rd
4th in the house
5TH BOIIIZ
Nova could use a snack.
Does Dark Seer’s increase of his lvl 15 talent from +90 to +120 make it a better choice now than 14 Health Regen?
+90 to +120 what? DAMAGE. points off for not including units.
also sixth, I think?
dank memes
poor monkey king, not even that great yet gets nerfed into oblivion, rip.
Just fucking marketing strategy of valve. Release a imba hero with so many people will spam it and by hats then nerf it hard later
dank post dude
The Dark Seer change would be more beneficial if it were at lvl 10, but even then it's too late into the game to make a difference. The Ion Shell manacost made a bigger difference to him overall, forcing him to be a little more present in the frontlines.
Also note the acknowledgement to respawn time being picked in losing situations in the Sand King section. A 2.3% difference isn't much, but it is close to the overall winrate increase, which suggests that it is a strong factor in the increase to the winrate. My guess is that SK will continue to increase in winrate as people pick the talent more.
Nerf tinker.
buff spirit breaker
Still waiting for arc warden to rise from the grave :|
still waiting for arc warden and broodmoter to rise from the grave
I like where arc warden is rn. Playable and not broken enough that almost any player would play him. Only those that know how to, play him. I'm afraid if he receives a huge buff, dumbasses would start spamming him again like when he was released (me included). And 17th
M.C.T.
Yeah, add +1170% chance of bash.
I think sven's cleave needs a nerf :/
20 <-_-> FF
Bring brood back #bbb
it's interensting that monkey king bar has a true strike but monkey king himself does not have it, since it sounds like the 'bar' is monkey king's staff. I think he should have a passive ability with true strike... it could be added as the fourth ability with a aghanim upgrade maybe
nerf tinker pls
Luna rip? From 56% to 53%, haha. Just made her not totally OP
обоссали обезьяну
Why do they ask about arc warden buff any patch? Senseless hero who is played around breaking mechahics side effect with no core idea except this side effect mechanics breakage. If you don't think so just try to explain what arc warden is to any dota 2 newcommer. Needs rework as new lone dru.. sniper does.
As for the topic, don't understand why to buff 55% wr Zeus.
sad life for luna :(
i played doom on my other account this day 4times . 4w-0L
16mins-17mins midas+radiance+boots
Chen should get a buff, please.......:(
я ваш рот нааборот
WitchKing his 1st skill is True Strike to all heroes. That's where the MKB effect is.
What I don't understand are the heroes that are played neither competitively nor in pubs, yet ignored by Valve. Specifically brood and furion. They pretty much have all heroes filling a certain niche role, and can be picked as a secret strat, but the rat kings are dead. You can try to play them as traditional carries/offlaners, but they are inferior in most cases. Cri (only care because they're my upcoming all hero challenges tbh, haha)
@ETdAWESOME
See previous article
https://www.dotabuff.com/blog/2017-02-12-the-death-of-splitpush
This is so wrong, necrophos decrease in winrate is because movementspeed nerf not agility gain nerf
I suspect Necrophos' win rate drop wasn't due to the reduction in agility; it was due to the 5 MS reduction that prevents him from getting in position and remaining survivable. Now 10 heroes are as fast as and 22 heroes are faster than Necrophos who weren't before. The drop from 290 to 285 is arguably the most damaging movement speed drop possible to a hero.
I'll also point out that Shadow Demon's drop is not just due to the changes to his own hero, but also to the changes to Luna which severely reduced his win rate with hero, a large portion of his games overall.
You forgot to actually write what the change in win rate was for shadow demon, or post his graph.
The necro speed decrease is offset by an increase in his lvl 15 ms talent from 15 to 20, and by that time the ms is overshadowed by a multitude of other factors resulting in a death (chain stunning, blinks, etc that can easily compensate for a 5ms positioning error). So the window in which it makes a difference is very roughly the first 20 minutes or so of the game.
Alternatively the move from 1.7 to 1.2 results in 12.5 agility loss by lvl 25. I'm new to doing the math on this stuff, but if I understand it correctly it means a reduction in armor by 1.75, or a 10.5% decrease in effective hp. In the late game, it's more likely that you will encounter physical damage so it makes a notable if situational difference in the late game.
These changes definitely make the lvl 15 choice more important, as you are either going to be slower in the late game or miss out on 18 agility (instead of missing out on 12). So the question I'm posing is whether Necro players are being too headstrong in the early game or in the late game.
i am pretty sure weaver needs a nerf. this heroes damage is ridicilous in the early stage of the game.
Nerf luna more
page 1 is closed. Gay and noobs commend onpage 2
I got cancer from reading the comments here
Rip Luna? Clinton pls... she still has top winrate of all carries. Her nerf is basically 6 dmg so its kinda harder to lasthit (as if its hard at all with lunar). Night Vision merely rescalled and the armor? WHO DOES EVEN TAKE ARMOR?
the one who cancer is who commend with the number
Moon glaive not bounce in baraks pls
Buff Arc Warden to rise from the grave
what the fuck where are the weaver nerfs. Please valve get it together. Weaver makes low mmr ranked hell to get out of. My skill range is above 6k mmr but with terrible teams holding you back in that range it is impossible to traverse higher as a player.
pooteen sooka
Its that true that 3.5k is the max calib. Aww wtf how can i have my 4k mmr.
Sad